The President’s attack on options in his recent message to Congress certainly cannot apply to any business transacted on the New York Stock Exchange, as options are not dealt in there. Options of from three to sixty days were dealt in a great many years ago, but were abandoned long since. Every purchase and sale now made on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange provides for a delivery on the day of purchase, or the following day, and payment made therefor upon delivery of the security, and no law can possibly be passed by Congress, or the State Legislature, to prevent a broker thus buying securities for a customer on part payment on terms satisfactory to himself, any more than a law could be enacted to prevent a dry goods, hardware, grocer, or merchant in any other line from extending credit to his customers. Nearly all the business of the world is thus transacted, and could not be done on a large scale otherwise. In London, however, most of the business is virtually on an option basis, as it provides for fortnightly settlements, there being two settlement periods each month, which can be extended from time to time indefinitely at the option of the parties connected therewith.
The method of doing business in “futures” prevails on the Cotton and Produce Exchanges, and could not well be transacted, to the extent of making an active market for the benefit of the producers, on any other basis, in my opinion. To do away with dealings in futures would simply do away with the exchanges, which would be to the disadvantage of the farmers. A farmer, as soon as he ascertains that his crop is secure, makes a calculation of how long it will take to put it in his barn, thrash it out, and transmit it to Chicago, and he sells it to deliver during that month or a later one, thus ridding himself of any further risk of fluctuation in the price, and is made happy thereby. If he is deprived of such a market, it puts him back to the old way of doing business, when the large dealers from Liverpool, Chicago, and other quarters sent their agents direct to the farmers at harvest time, and by bringing all kinds of discouraging influences to bear upon them made them sell at a fraction above the cost of production; as against this they are at present able to hold their crop back and get the highest price. In having the ready market which now exists the farmers have all become rich. Why, therefore, change the present plan, which has given so much prosperity to the producers of cotton and other products, to what might be likely to reverse their present satisfactory condition?
Members of the New York Stock Exchange, in cases of insolvency, are required, by the rules, to immediately notify the Stock Exchange of their inability to meet their contracts, and the selling or buying in “under the rule,” to close defaulted contracts, if there are any, usually follows the announcement of a failure and failure carries with it suspension. But failures in the Stock Exchange are very few and far between, considering that there are eleven hundred members. They are indeed far below the average of failures in mercantile business, and they are generally followed by satisfactory settlements and readmission to membership, and a resumption of business.
This speaks well for both the integrity and the conservatism of Stock Exchange houses. It is very seldom that what would be called a bad failure occurs among them. There are, in fact, no abuses on the Stock Exchange, for trickery and unfair dealing is impossible, owing to the strictness of the surveillance and discipline constantly maintained over the members, who are also themselves punctilious in keeping their contracts and observing the rules, and doing only what is fair and square in business. This is essential to their own interests and success, as bankers and brokers, without regard to the penalty of suspension, or expulsion, for any irregularity. That penalty they approve of, for it is a protection for all of them, except an occasional black sheep that they are glad to see weeded out of the Exchange.
How necessary the Stock Exchange is to the banks was shown during the recent crisis, as in preceding panics, when to protect themselves they were forced to call in their loans by wholesale, and where necessary to at once liquidate the collaterals. It was the Stock Exchange that made this liquidation possible, and saved many of the banks and trust companies from suspension, as well as many bankers and brokers, who were enabled by it to pass through the trying ordeal, instead of going to the wall in Wall Street.
The Stock Exchange therefore obviously performs a great and very useful and important function in monetary affairs, besides being the barometer of values for stocks and bonds, as measured by prices, while the cotton and the grain exchanges perform a similar service with regard to those speculative commodities.
Yet one effect of the crisis of 1907 has been to give a new impulse to Wall Street detraction, and sharpen the teeth and claws of the detractors. While many are mistaken enough to hold Wall Street responsible for the past year’s financial disaster, many more are equally mistaken in declaring that President Roosevelt caused them by his speeches and the Government prosecutions of law-breaking railway and Industrial Corporations. Both charges are unreasonable and false, but this consideration is a small matter to those who have no hesitation in making reckless assertions which they are unable to prove, and who are as ready to vent their spite as they are their prejudices.
Many indeed without knowing anything about Wall Street speculation, and who have never speculated anywhere, blame speculation for a host of evils that are in no way due to it. Some of them would even close the Stock Exchange to stop speculation there, forgetting apparently that this would deprive investors and banking institutions as well as speculators of a market for securities, and make all the stocks and bonds now listed and dealt in there practically unmarketable. In such an event there would most certainly be a fall in their prices greater than any we witnessed in 1907.
It is true that in the manipulation of stocks matched orders may have been occasionally resorted to, despite the rule against it on the Stock Exchange, but it is only because of the difficulty, or impossibility, of discovering or proving it, for there is no body of men subject to stricter discipline, or more amenable to it, than the members of the New York Stock Exchange, nor any more patriotic, as their generous acts during the Civil War, and at other times, have abundantly shown.
Neither should it be forgotten that they pay the State of New York a tax of two dollars on every hundred shares of stock they sell, which is an important source of revenue to the commonwealth. That the Stock Exchange, as a free market for securities, is indispensable to the country is beyond question. It is necessary to our national needs, and I am proud of being one of the oldest of its members, my membership dating from 1864; and I am able from long personal experience and observation to testify to the integrity, soundness, and general good character of my fellow members and the banking community of Wall Street.
Therefore take my word for it that Wall Street is not as black as it is painted, and that anyone’s money is as safe there as anywhere in business, if properly placed, and handled with good judgment. If any of it is lost it is by its owner, and he has only himself to blame for his ill luck. But it is always to the interest of his banker and broker to have him make money, for when a customer loses his money his broker in some degree shares the loss by losing him as a customer.
In conclusion, I hope that if any of you ever take a flyer in Wall Street, you will come out of it, with flying colors, on the winning side, and with a good opinion of the Street proportioned to the magnificence of your success!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CHAPTER LXXXIV.
THE FINANCIAL AND TRADE SITUATION, PAST, PRESENT
AND FUTURE, REVIEWING THE CRISIS OF 1907, WITH CAUSES AND REMEDIES.[10]
Footnote 10:
An address delivered by Henry Clews at the annual meeting of the Pittsburg Chapter, American Institute of Banking, at Pittsburg, Pa., on Tuesday evening, February 25, 1908.
It gives me no ordinary pleasure to address an audience of Pittsburg bankers, for Pittsburg is the hub of our iron and steel industry, and as it has no rival in the manufacture of iron and steel, it may well feel proud of its supremacy. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise and progress of that industry in Pittsburg is one of the marvels of the age. A few years ago Pittsburg was known in New York as the Smoky City. A little later she became known as the City of Steel and Coal. Now, through the alchemy of the brains of your wise men, she is known as the place where smoke and coal and steel are in some mysterious way mixed up in such a form that they fill your pockets with pure gold. To the millionaire of to-day we bow in deference to his wealth. But to the grimy sons of toil, who planted the seed and bore the burdens of the earlier days, we take off our hats with reverence. The founders of your city chose wisely in selecting this spot for settlement, at the river’s junction, in the midst of rich deposits of coal and iron. It seems rather odd that your two greatest products should be glass, which is brittle, and steel, which is tough. You also excel in producing cork, which is light, and iron, which is heavy. Surely extremes meet in your city as well as rivers. Down our way we wonder what you do not produce when we learn of the diversity of your wares. It certainly seems to me that a man could learn a whole lot if allowed to visit all your various foundries, factories and mills, but it would take him nearly as long as to go through college, as their name is legion. The welcome which you have given me touches me deeply, and I assure you that in future I shall preach the doctrine that there are others in Pittsburg whose mission it is to dispense happiness besides Mr. Carnegie.
If we glance at the history of steel manufacturing in the United States, we find it centered in and very largely confined to Pittsburg, and if we recall the enormous fortunes made in that industry by Mr. Carnegie and many others, under the protection of high tariff, we see one of the greatest wonders of trade development and modern enterprise.
Yet it was not until after the beginning of the war between the North and the South—the great conflict waged from 1861 to 1865—that any large or even considerable amount of steel was manufactured in the United States. But now we lead the world in making it, and Pittsburg is our great source of supply. At the same time, we can justly say that the march of invention and modern improvement in other directions has kept pace with the growth of Pittsburg and our marvelous progress in iron and steel-making.
This reflection is particularly gratifying in view of our recent financial crisis, in which New York was the storm-center, and Pittsburg almost as stormy for a time. But both cities, like the country at large, stood up bravely and made the best of the situation by all the means at their command. Both fortified themselves by a good emergency measure and issued Clearing House Certificates, according to their needs. Pittsburg, however, went one or two better than New York, and, like many other cities, issued scrip; and better still no one in Pittsburg refused it, not even a car conductor for fares. Here was public spirit rising almost to the height of patriotism.
Now, Pittsburg in common with the rest of the country is again about on an even keel financially, with its banks on a cash basis, its cashiers’ certificates and scrip redeemed, and its Stock Exchange reopened. But unfortunately the crisis gave industry a blow from which it has not yet recovered, although conditions are steadily improving all over the United States. The iron and steel industry received the hardest blow of all, and from a feast you quickly passed to a famine, which is a way the iron trade always had. It is proverbially, however, as quick to recover as to collapse; so all we have to do is to keep up our courage and wait, and we may feel assured there is a good time coming. But whether it will come soon, or later, is a question about which iron-masters, financiers, and trade doctors generally are much divided in opinion at present. It is a good sign, however, that work has been resumed in fully three-fourths of the entire Duquesne works of the United States Steel Corporation in Pittsburg, although it is admitted that only 46 per cent of all the Corporation’s works are running.
In September, 1906, when stock and bond prices were manipulated abnormally to a 3½ per cent basis, while six months’ money was loaning at 6 per cent, it was evident that one or the other was too high; and considering the growing demand for the use of money it became quite apparent it was not money that was too dear, but securities. At that time I persistently advised every one to get out of stocks and out of debt, and keep out for a prolonged period.
Since then security values went down prodigiously—$3,500,000,000 would scarcely cover the depreciation at its lowest point of those dealt in on the New York Stock Exchange alone. Our financial situation is vastly different, however, from what it was in any of our previous great panics, of which there have been a number, since that of 1857, which began with the failure of the Ohio Life & Trust Co. at the time of my advent in Wall Street. I have been in all the subsequent panics, and the present conditions differ from those of all the other great financial storms because the wealth of the nation has become so vast as to make it the richest in actual wealth and productiveness of all nations. As a matter of fact, our wealth-making developments have been so extensive and excessive as to have forged ahead of our banking facilities. This has had much to do with our recent setback. Wise and sagacious capitalists saw the handwriting on the wall in Wall Street and elsewhere, and those who did unloaded their securities in 1906, dumping their stocks at top-notch prices, amounting to at least $1,000,000,000, upon weaker-backed people.
This unloading, together with the San Francisco earthquake disaster, which wiped out $350,000,000 of property, struck the staggering blows which did more than anything else to pave the way to the recent panic conditions. The selling out by big holders was followed by all the large railroad systems in the country selling huge amounts of bonds, stocks and short-term notes. These being offered to stockholders of record at apparently tempting prices, were floated. But this great mass of new securities coming on the market was an indigestible one, and absorbed the capital of a very large number of the rich men of the country and put it in fixed form; and most of these heretofore very rich men have ever since been in the position of a man who, having had a “Sherry dinner,” is urged to accept another dinner at Delmonico’s immediately afterwards—his wish strong but his capacity lacking.
What produced the panic was a number of adverse factors happening one after another in rapid succession.
I summarize, briefly, the causes as follows:
FIRST.
The Boer war which left England in almost as bad a financial strait as we were in through the culmination of a similar period of overdoing in trade and speculation in new industrial ventures, together with an excess of new issues of British Consols during the war period resulting in a recent decline in the price of these prime securities to 81—about the lowest price on record.
SECOND.
Germany was in fully as bad a condition owing to extravagant industrial enterprises, rivalling our own, and which required the most careful nursing to avoid a collapse.
THIRD.
France acted alone in financing Russian loans, and in the crisis of the Japanese-Russian war was compelled unwillingly to supply new funds in order to protect the French loans already outstanding. Hence France had little or no money to lend except to the French.
FOURTH.
The Japanese-Russian war brought both of these countries forward for the first time as prominent and important factors in the world’s money market, and both are still, like Oliver Twist, crying for “more.” This conflict and the Boer war combined wasted over $2,000,000,000 of capital.
FIFTH.
Funds were almost unobtainable except at prohibitive rates at the time of our recent crop-moving period, and for causes already mentioned we could not look to Europe for help. Usually Europe discounts New York securities bills for about $300,000,000 at this period, but last year Europe said: “No; we have troubles of our own.”
SIXTH.
The California earthquake with losses of $350,000,000, and the Chili and other earthquakes of less importance and severity in various parts of the world were heavy blows at prosperity.
SEVENTH.
The compulsory unloading of very many millions of dollars of stocks and bonds by large capitalists and operators, together with immense sales of new securities by corporations and railroads, and the manipulation of prices and stocks up to a 3½ per cent interest basis while time money was loaning at 6 per cent, and above, on the best of collateral. Besides which heavy, excessive and reckless operations in real estate and mining enterprises having been made all over the nation, caused large amounts of capital to lose its liquid quality and become fixed.
EIGHTH.
The investigation of the great life insurance companies and the Metropolitan railroad, and the sad disclosures, followed by the absurd fine of $29,400,000 by Judge Landis against a corporation with a capital of only $1,000,000, had a demoralizing effect upon the public mind. This preposterous fine savored of confiscation and alarmed investors.
NINTH.
The Interstate Commerce Commission’s examination of the Chicago & Alton deal and the consequent developments further undermined the confidence of investors.
TENTH.
The making of injudicious loans by the Knickerbocker Trust Co. and the chains of banks, both in Manhattan and Brooklyn, which caused the suspension of the institutions and arrest of officials on criminal charges intensified public distrust, while the collapse of the Copper market unsettled the metal markets all over the world and resulted in a reduction of dividends on copper shares, and a serious break in the price of all that class of securities.
LASTLY.
A gross abuse of our credit system and the consequent inflation of all values, stimulated by loose banking and promoting methods, proved the climax in a series of events which culminated in the sharpest though not the severest panic the present generation has experienced. The main cause of the panic was that of general overdoing. Credit was over-extended; speculation was reckless and ill-advised; expansion of every sort was being carried to excess by over-confidence, until finally the country’s floating capital was practically exhausted through being turned too rapidly from liquid to fixed forms. We have only to glance at the demands upon new capital during the last year or two to realize this fact.
Some idea of the congested state of the stock market may be obtained from the fact that during the last five years the total amount of new securities authorized was $6,800,000,000; the eleven months of 1907 alone accounting for $2,000,000,000 of this total.
During the latter period our railroads authorized $1,400,000,000 securities, of which they were able to issue only one-half, owing to money market conditions. Of industrial securities less than $500,000,000 were authorized, but nearly $400,000,000 of these appear to have been issued.
These figures take no account of the issues of municipal securities, and those of many other business concerns of a minor character, but they are quite sufficient to indicate the extraordinary demands upon the money market during the last two years, demands which in connection with huge speculative borrowings imposed an unbearable strain upon the banks and precipitated the March, August and October collapses in the stock market. Other influences have undoubtedly been at work to cause the breakdown, but no single factor compares in importance with that of the excessive issues of new securities and obligations during the past two years which the country was utterly unable to assimilate.
In discussing the cause of the recent panicky contraction and disturbance in the business and financial world, nothing, however, could be further from the truth than to charge it all to the great corporation exposures and prosecutions.
As I have said, there were many other things that contributed to bring about last year’s depression and disturbance, and to cast over the bright sky of business prosperity the heavy clouds of distrust, reaction and panic.
The recent clouds in the financial sky can remotely be attributed in a large measure to the effect of the tremendous railroad, industrial and commercial development of the last ten years, which brought about capital requirements in excess of the ability of the country to supply them.
Naturally and necessarily, this resulted in precautionary steps being taken by bankers and others to limit demands that capital could not supply.
This conservatism and consequent contraction of the overwhelming volume of business will, it is believed, prove the strongest force in averting further trouble and disaster.
In an effort to meet the demands of the enormous business offered them, the great railway and industrial corporations sought to enlarge their equipment at vast expense. In this they acted unwisely. They overtraded. It was perhaps excusable not very long ago, when confidence was in its zenith and credit superabundant, to attempt the financing of mammoth undertakings. But unexpectedly and like a bolt out of a clear sky, came the startling insurance and other exposures, and gradually timidity took the place of confidence.
Then capital, which is always more timid than usual at such times, began to contract, and many railroad and industrial corporations found themselves unable to borrow the large sums needed to meet their extraordinary expenditures.
The banks, in many instances, having already over-extended credits, were unable to provide the necessary funds, and new securities, owing to excessive supplies and other causes, ceased to find the ready market that they had enjoyed for so long a period. Investors took wing. Curtailment, therefore, in every direction became a necessity; President Roosevelt can no more be blamed for the recent depression and panicky disturbance than he can be credited with all the great prosperity that preceded the crisis.
That this reaction, culminating in a panic so severe, came just at the time it did, is largely if not wholly coincidental. It cannot be denied, however, that the startling disclosures of wrongdoing on the part of many of the great railroad and industrial corporations disturbed the confidence of the public to the core, and paved the way to it.
Being now myself optimistic, I look on the sunny side and hope for the best. It is, however, a time for conservatism, and while trusting in Providence, it is well to keep our powder dry. It is a good time to cultivate the virtue of patience, and make haste slowly until all the aftermath of the panic, in the way of liquidation and the elimination of unsound timber from business structures, is completed.
This will leave everything in the financial and industrial world stronger than before. It will also leave us with a higher standard of business morality resulting from the exposure of looting and other illegal practices and abuses of power in the management of large corporations. The stoppage of the evil of rebating by the railroads is of itself a great gain in this respect, and for this we have to thank President Roosevelt.
As to the future, Pittsburg and the iron and steel trade should be the first to feel improvement in the general business of the country, for iron is still the best barometer of the times, as it leads all other industries in both depression and recovery, and what an eventful history Pittsburg can point to, the world knows.
It was at Pittsburg that the Bessemer process was first applied to steel making in America, and the giant strides in the industry that followed its supersedure of the open-hearth process not only astonished ourselves but all Europe. It was a new departure on a grand scale, this application of science to mechanical methods, a revelation that was marvellous in the trade expansion and wealth it produced.
Yet it is not improbable that before long, if not immediately, the Bessemer process by which this immense development was achieved will be very generally superseded by the open-hearth process of steel making, which originated and had its early development in this country. Thus in the whirligig of time it will displace the Bessemer process, by which it was itself displaced. This, as you are of course aware, is owing to improvements, chiefly by Talbott, an American engineer, in the open-hearth process, which for a long time has been considered almost out of the race in competition with the Bessemer process. This reminds us that history repeats itself.
The open-hearth process has now been brought to such perfection that its superiority over the Bessemer process is declared by many in the trade to be established. Thus practice makes perfect, and time works wonders. Its superiority over the Bessemer process is said to have been particularly demonstrated in dealing with ores of any but a very low phosphorus grade. This American improvement in the open-hearth process has been already widely recognized and adopted in England, and we are in this way repaying the debt we owed to that country for the Bessemer process.
The steel manufactured in the United States last year aggregated 23,246,000 tons, of which 12,275,000 tons were by the Bessemer process and 10,971,000 tons by the open-hearth process. There were also some other varieties of production, copied from processes in use on the European Continent, but the general drift, I am informed, is now towards the open-hearth process.
Out of Pittsburg, of course, I should not talk so much about steel, but iron and steel are Pittsburg’s bread and butter. This reminds me that apart from agriculture the principal sources of our national wealth are minerals and manufacturing. Mining and manufacturing are primary and fundamental industries. Our agricultural income last year, according to the United States census estimates, was about seven thousand millions of dollars, while the metals mined were valued at about two thousand millions, against $1,902,517,565 in 1906.
This metallic product for the year, it is estimated, was turned by manufacturing it into materials having a market value of fifteen thousand millions of dollars. If we add that of agriculture, the metallic products, and manufacturing, together, we have a total valuation for the year of twenty-four thousand millions of dollars. The fertility of our natural resources is here shown by their rapid rate of development. But this, while contributing so largely to our present national wealth, is not an unmixed good. We should always bear in mind that the more we take out of the earth, and the more we strip our forests of timber, the less we have remaining. In forestry, however, we are now preparing for the future by replanting, but we cannot replant minerals.
The mineral products of this country have more than trebled since 1890; more than doubled since 1899; and are more than five fold what they were in 1880. From 1900 to 1906 our mineral product increased at a rate representing a hundred and ninety millions a year.
I am quoting these statistics as a reminder of the vastness of our natural resources, and the recuperative power of the nation, which is one of the most encouraging features of the national situation. These resources are the backbone of the country’s greatness; and those who can see nothing cheerful in the outlook and to whom everything at times looks as blue as indigo, will do well to think of them, for they are Nature’s national banks, that can never fail, and unfailing sources of our national prosperity.
It was these resources, in the form of exports to foreign countries, that enabled us to purchase and pay for—without borrowing or asking favors—the one hundred millions of gold that we imported to relieve the crisis. Here was indisputable evidence of the large international trade balance in our favor, and of our monetary and commercial independence of the rest of the world; and this gold we still hold, although in the ordinary course of commerce we may reasonably export some of it before long, for we have plenty to spare and money is superabundant at two per cent on call in Wall Street. Meanwhile our exports of produce and other merchandise continue extremely heavy, and they were never heavier than during the crisis, that is, in the last three months of 1907, while in January, 1908, they rose to a total value of one hundred and twenty-eight millions, or $17,742,352 more than in January, 1907. This is all the more favorable because our imports since the crisis have very largely decreased. In our January exports, cotton alone represented $76,687,508 of the total, and breadstuffs $24,463,503.