Chapter 19 · Part 19 — Analyst Checklist
Analyst Checklist
A working checklist, from first look to written verdict.
A working checklist. Print it, tick it, and you will not miss what the ratios hide.
Before you read a single number
- Which entity? Bank standalone _ Group _
→ NRB regulates the BANK
→ dividends come from the BANK
→ the Group shows the footprint
- Which period? This Quarter _ Upto This Quarter (YTD) _
→ use YTD for performance
- Which quarter? Q1 _ Q2 _ Q3 _ Q4 _
→ Q4 absorbs every year-end true-up
- Units confirmed? NPR '000 _ ! SEGMENT NOTE IS NPR Mio. _
- Audited? Audited _ Unaudited (interim) _
→ interim figures are provisional
- Comparatives restated? Check for "regrouped/rearranged"
- Bonus issue in the period? If yes, prior-year EPS must be restatedThe fourteen consistency checks
Do these first. Fifteen minutes. A failed check must be resolved before any analysis.
- 1. Assets = Liabilities + Equity
- 2. Effective tax rate ≈ statutory [R], or explained
- 3. OCI pre-tax ± tax = OCI net of tax
- 4. EPS reconciles (and prior year restated for bonus issues)
- 5. Cash flow CLOSING cash = balance sheet cash
- 6. Cash flow OPENING cash = prior-year balance sheet cash
- 7. Operating cash flow subtotal re-derives arithmetically
- 8. SoCE "Transfer to reserves" row NETS TO ZERO
- 9. SoCE "Bonus shares" row NETS TO ZERO
- 10. SoCE closing equity = balance sheet total equity
- 11. SoCE OCI row = OCI statement net figure
- 12. Distributable profit regulatory adjustments = SoCE regulatory
reserve transfer
- 13. Distributable profit appropriations = SoCE reserve transfers
- 14. Segment PBT total = P&L PBT; segment assets = total assets;
intersegment nets to zeroRead management's own words
- Management Analysis section read
- * "PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES" section read — internal AND external
- "Strategy" section read — does it respond to the challenges?
- Details of Legal Action — all three questions clean?
- Cases by/against the institution
- Cases against promoters or directors (law/criminal)
- Financial crime cases against promoters or directors
- CEO responsibility statement present and signed
- Note any issue management names that the numbers do not obviously showProfit quality
- Decompose the profit growth:
- Did interest INCOME grow, or only NII?
- Interest expense change — rate cycle or volume?
- Fee income growth — durable?
- Trading income share — volatile?
- Impairment change
- Operating expense change
- ONE-OFFS identified and quantified:
- Employee-benefit reversals (VRS, Day 1 difference)
- Deferred tax credits
- Impairment reversals (check for NBA takeovers)
- Non-operating income
- Any item appearing once only
- Cost-to-income computed BOTH reported and one-off-adjusted
- Non-operating expense: does it RECUR? If yes, put it in the
operating cost base
- * Is the growth REPEATABLE? Write one sentence saying why or why notAsset quality
- The trio, all three, together:
- NPL ratio ____% (prior ____%)
- Coverage ____% (prior ____%)
- Net NPL ____% (prior ____%)
- * COVERAGE NORMALISATION computed:
Gross loans × NPL% × (prior coverage − current coverage)
= NPR ________ = ____% of pre-tax profit
- Credit cost = impairment ÷ average gross loans = ____%
(prior ____%)
- Watchlist balance from the classification note — next year's NPL
- Group NPL vs Bank NPL — which is worse, and why?
- Investment property (NBA):
- Balance rising?
- Purchases of investment properties (cash flow)
- ! DISPOSALS — nil disposals + rising NBA = escalating
provisions ahead [R]
- "Interest Capitalised Term Loan" (Part 7.17) rising?
→ construction lending or forbearance? Read alongside NPL
and Watchlist
- Stage 1 / 2 / 3 migration from the annual report's staging note
- Part 7.10 "Short loan loss provision in accounts" = NIL?
→ if not, the higher-of rule may not be applied correctlyCapital
- All three ratios recorded:
- Capital fund to RWA ____% (prior ____%)
- Tier 1 Capital to RWA ____% (prior ____%)
- * CET 1 Capital to RWA ____% (prior ____%)
- Structure derived:
AT1 = Tier 1 − CET1 = ____pp
Tier 2 = Total − Tier 1 = ____pp
- * Did CET1 RISE or FALL?
→ if headline CAR rose while CET1 fell, the improvement
was BOUGHT with AT1/Tier 2, not earned
- Capital raised in the period? Cash or bonus?
→ bonus shares do NOT change total equity or CET1
- Debenture maturity profile checked
→ Tier 2 recognition AMORTISES before repayment [R]
- Growth headroom: how much RWA can be added at current CET1
before the minimum [R]?
- Goodwill and DTA quantified — both deducted from CET1 [R]Liquidity and funding
- CD ratio ____% (prior ____%) — headroom to the cap [R]?
- Liquidity ratio (NLA) ____% (prior ____%)
- Cost of funds ____% (prior ____%)
- Base rate ____% · Interest spread ____%
- Deposit growth ____% vs Loan growth ____%
→ which is faster? That determines margin pressure ahead
- Deposit MIX from the note — CASA ratio computed?
- Interbank borrowing (Due to BFIs) — rising or falling?
→ falling = improving funding quality
- Due to Nepal Rastra Bank — any balance?
→ a period-end SLF/repo balance can signal a shortfall
- * LIQUIDITY STRESS TEST:
Net liquid assets ≈ NLA% × total deposits = NPR ________
Top-20 depositors = NPR ________
Coverage = ______×Cash flow
- * Interest received ÷ Interest income = ____% (prior ____%)
→ widening gap = deteriorating collection
- * Operating cash flow BEFORE changes vs Operating profit
→ within what %? This answers "is the profit real?"
- Cash payment to employees vs Personnel expenses — the gap
explains accruals and one-offs
- Net operating cash flow DECOMPOSED:
Reported ________ + loan growth ________ + placements ________
+ NRB balance ________ = adjusted ________
→ negative because of GROWTH, or genuinely weak?
- * Group vs Bank operating cash flow — how big is the gap?
→ a large gap means the subsidiaries are cash-hungry
- Investment securities: purchases NETTED against sales
→ what is the REAL deployment?
- Capex vs depreciation — is the asset base ageing?Equity and distribution
- SoCE reconciliation traced line by line
- * Appropriation rate = transfers to reserves ÷ profit = ____%
- * Regulatory reserve transfer = NPR ________ = ____% of profit
→ the single best earnings-quality number in the report
- Which regulatory adjustment drove it? Rank them:
- Interest receivable
- Short loan loss provision
- NBA short provision
- Deferred tax assets
- Goodwill / bargain purchase gain
- Actuarial loss
- Interest capitalised
- * Distributable profit per share ____ vs Basic EPS ____
Ratio = ____% (prior ____%)
- * DIVIDEND COVERAGE:
Total distribution (cash + stock) = NPR ________
Net profit available for distribution = NPR ________
→ COVERED? Yes _ No _
- Cash payout ratio ____% · Total payout ratio ____%
- Opening retained earnings — how deep is the buffer?
→ a thin or negative opening balance means no smoothing capacitySegments
- Segment PBT table built, ranked by contribution to the change:
Segment This yr Last yr Change Share of Δ
______________ ________ ________ ________ ________
______________ ________ ________ ________ ________
______________ ________ ________ ________ ________
- * How many CUSTOMER-LENDING segments declined?
- * How much of the improvement came from "OTHERS"?
→ if comparable to the total change, the improvement is
UNEXPLAINED — ask why
- Segment yields computed: external revenue ÷ segment assets
→ any segment with assets growing and yield collapsing?
- Return on segment assets ranked
→ is asset growth going to the most or least profitable segments?
- Retail funding surplus = Retail liabilities − Retail assets
→ the internal capital market
- Total external revenue growth vs total profit growth
→ flat revenue with rising profit = a cost-side storyConcentration and governance
- * CREDIT CONCENTRATION — use the GROUP basis, not individual:
Top-20 exposure (group) NPR ________ = ____% of loans
Top-20 exposure (individual) NPR ________ = ____% of loans
Ratio between them ______×
* Top-20 ÷ Total equity ______×
At 50% LGD → ____% of capital consumed
- * DEPOSIT CONCENTRATION:
Top-20 deposits NPR ________ = ____% (prior ____%)
Rising or falling?
→ falling while deposits grow = broad-based growth
- BORROWING CONCENTRATION:
Top-10 lenders as % of deposits = ____%
→ immaterial if the bank is deposit-funded
- * "Loans and Advances extended to Promoters" = NIL?
Yes _ No _ → if not nil, check terms, limits [R] and approval
- Board meetings ____ · Committee meetings ____
- Audit / Risk / HR committees chaired by non-executives?
- Independent director(s) on the board?
- Related-party transactions with subsidiaries reviewed
- Parent lending to a microfinance subsidiary — how large?
→ real credit risk that vanishes on consolidation
- Dividends upstreamed from subsidiaries ÷ subsidiary profit = ____%
→ Group EPS overstates dividend capacity by the shortfallThe twelve red flags
- NPL rising while coverage falls - CET1 flat or falling while headline CAR rises - Interest received well below interest income, and widening - Distributable profit per share falling while EPS rises - A large regulatory reserve transfer - Loan growth much faster than deposit growth - NBA rising with nil disposals - Interest capitalised rising alongside NPL - "Others" segment moving by ≈ the total profit change - Large-borrower concentration exceeding total equity - A recurring material "non-operating expense" - Any related-party lending to promoters or directors
The six false alarms
- Negative operating cash flow → decompose before judging
- Cash balance halving → check where it went (securities?)
- Trillion-rupee gross securities purchases → net them
- Large gross derivative assets AND liabilities → check the net
- A lumpy Q4 → annual actuarial + year-end true-ups
- "Investment in subsidiaries: nil" in the Group column
→ it means they were consolidatedRegulatory currency
- [R] Every threshold verified against the Unified Directives in
force for THIS reporting period:
- Capital adequacy minimums and buffers
- Loan classification thresholds and provisioning rates
- CD ratio ceiling
- NLA minimum
- CRR / SLR
- General reserve appropriation %
- Deprived sector minimum %
- CSR and training fund %
- Single-obligor and related-party exposure limits
- NBA provisioning schedule
- Corporate tax rate for BFIs (Income Tax Act + Finance Act)
- [R] ICAN CARVE-OUT position checked for the period
→ an IFRS answer is not automatically the Nepali answer
- [R] EIR transition: are "old term loans" still on Gross Interest
Rate? Does it affect period comparability?
- [R] FATF listing status for Nepal verified as at the reporting dateBefore you write
- Can you state, in ONE PARAGRAPH:
- How much of the profit growth is franchise?
- How much is cycle?
- How much is one-off?
- Is asset quality improving or deteriorating, and by how much
in rupees?
- Is the capital position genuinely stronger, or purchased?
- What is the real dividend capacity?
- Where is the concentration risk?
- What constrains the bank next year?
- Have you separated:
- What NFRS says the shareholders EARNED (EPS)
- What NRB says they may RECEIVE (distributable per share)
- Have you stated your conventions?
- Group or Bank
- Average or closing balances
- Net NPL denominator
- Which EPS basis for PE
- * THE FINAL TEST:
Have you found at least ONE material thing that the
headline numbers do not show?
If not, you have not finished.The cross-bank comparison card
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ COMPARE FREELY NEVER COMPARE WITHOUT CHECKING│ ├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤ │ CET 1 ratio ! Total CAR alone │ │ Net interest, fee and commission ! NII or fee income separately│ │ income (EIR classification differs)│ │ Credit cost (÷ average loans) ! Absolute impairment │ │ Cost of funds ! Cost-to-income across the │ │ Base rate (mandated formula) NFRS 16 boundary │ │ CD ratio, NLA (NRB definitions) ! PE ratios (Group vs Bank │ │ Distributable profit per share EPS basis differs) │ │ ÷ EPS ← the quality ratio ! Segment margins (definitions│ │ differ by bank) │ │ ! NPL (check Group vs Bank, │ │ and write-off policy) │ │ ! Coverage (collateral profile│ │ and NPL grade mix differ) │ └──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
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