With these feelings uppermost in the public mind, or at least influencing investors, it was not surprising that such a fever of distrust prevailed on every stock exchange in the United States, and that sympathetically and temporarily it somewhat affected the London Stock Exchange and every bourse on the European Continent. The situation had begun to look almost hopeless before reason began to take the place of hysteria among most investors and speculators. Then the indiscriminate slaughter of stocks prompted investment buying, and the great scare, after two weeks of storm and stress, gradually passed into history, while prices, with occasional setbacks, responded to the change of sentiment by slow but general recovery. But whether this will be followed by a relapse or not remains to be seen.
The apprehension excited among investors and speculators in stocks by that $29,240,000 fine against the Standard Oil Company of Indiana did an immense amount of harm through the enormous losses to which it led. In combination with the prosecution of the Southern Railway by Southern States, involving the conflict between North Carolina and Alabama and the United States Courts, that extravagant fine, so suggestive of _opera bouffe_, was the immediate cause of the heavy liquidation that produced this August crisis and turned the New York stock market into a storm center. Although there was no probability or even possibility of this fine ever being collected from a million-dollar corporation, even if affirmed on appeal, public sentiment was about as much disturbed as if it were ultimately collectible. By creating, although without sufficient reason, fear of confiscation, it led to those enormous sales and sacrifices of stocks by investors, as well as by speculators, and the virtual panic that lasted those two long and memorable weeks.
The innocent thus suffered with the guilty, and the evil effect of such a fine was clearly demonstrated by a very severe and disastrous object lesson. The true remedy for rebating and other wilful violations of law is not to be found in the infliction of heavy penalties on the guilty corporations, but on the responsible and guilty officers of those corporations, and not alone by fine but by imprisonment. Heavy fines inflicted on corporations fall finally on their stockholders, through a corresponding loss of dividend-paying power, and the lowering of market prices for their stocks. The proper remedy is punishment behind iron bars.
As the stockholders are in no way responsible for delinquencies in management, it is unjust to make them suffer the consequences of these. It should, therefore, be the future policy of both the Federal Government and the States to punish corporations for illegal practices by criminal proceedings against those in their employ who are found to be responsible for them. Thus punishments will be confined to the guilty, and confidence will be restored among investors, for such prosecutions would in no way tend to depreciate the value of the stocks and bonds of the corporations concerned, but on the contrary they would tend to enhance their value by promoting honest management. This is a pivotal point to be kept constantly in view. Backsliders would be the only sufferers.
The collapse in Wall Street stocks was, however, not so much due to the trust prosecutions, the Southern States Railway legislation, the twenty-nine-million fine, and the avowed policy of President Roosevelt’s administration, as to the general condition of monetary affairs, and the condition of the stock market itself, although the causes enumerated started the August collapse. The outside public had for a long time been holding aloof from the stock market, owing both to the railway and industrial prosecutions, and hostile State legislation, and the great activity in trade, and in land, mining, and other speculation calling for a great deal of money. Speculation outside of Wall Street was never more rampant.
At the same time stocks were very largely concentrated in the hands of a few men of great wealth, who were anxious to sell them at improving prices, and they could only do this by making a market for them. They had in this endeavor a hard row to hoe, as the farmers say, for money was scarce and dear on time, not only here but all over the world, with the European market, like our own, overloaded with securities for sale, and, worse than all, with no demand for them from investors. They were in a tight place, rich as they were.
This condition of affairs was reflected in the gradual and persistent decline of British Consols, that had always been rated as the best and safest securities in the world, to 81, the lowest price at which they had sold since 1848—the year of the Smith O’Brien uprising in Ireland, when they touched 80. The depression in the other European stock markets was almost equally great, particularly in Berlin. We could, therefore, look for no market for our stocks, or our vast accumulations of new railway and other bonds, in Europe. The foreign markets were closed to us, and wanted nothing American but our gold. Our speculative capitalists loaded down with these unsalable securities were severely handicapped. From being giants, they had become cripples. Their wealth was tied up instead of being in the liquid form of poorer men who had their money in savings banks, withdrawable at any time. One New York City institution, the Bowery Savings Bank, held and still holds over a hundred million dollars of deposits.
Here was wealth in a liquid form that our large Wall Street capitalists, like most of the large corporations, sadly lacked, and they well might have envied their poorer brethren who owned these deposits. In proportion to their means, the poorer men were better off than the rich.
The fact is that our rich men undertook too much, both in the forming of syndicates to underwrite new bond issues and in attempting to control the stock market under adverse circumstances. They overestimated themselves very largely, or, in slang parlance, bit off more than they could chew, and when the shoe pinched most severely in March, and again in August last, they had to sell stocks at a heavy sacrifice to pay off the loans that were called in by the banks, or to meet the calls for more margin. For once they were really hard up.
This over-extension of Wall Street capitalists, with their efforts to unduly inflate prices, had its counterpart elsewhere, for such over-trading was by no means confined to them, but extended to, and was conspicuously shown by, railway and industrial corporations in their efforts to keep up with the increasing demands upon them consequent on the country’s great prosperity and natural growth. This over-extension was in the form of excessive expenditures and vast issues of bonds, stocks, and short-time notes. These far exceeded in aggregate amount the capacity of our own investors to absorb them. Hence, hundreds of millions of these are still being carried by the banking syndicates that underwrote them, and of course they at present show a very heavy aggregate loss. This kind of medicine is much disliked even by multi-millionaires.
Stimulated by the country’s enormous prosperity during the last few years, we have gone ahead too fast in all kinds of new and costly construction work and improvements. We have, in fact, gone ahead regardless of expense; and railway and manufacturing corporations have stretched their credit, in too many instances, almost to the breaking point. Meanwhile the railways have been overtaxed with traffic and the manufactories overrun with orders for their product, and they still are so notwithstanding all the much discussed and confidently predicted falling off in trade.
Through over-taxing their capacity, their working capital, and their credit to keep up with it, the national prosperity has proved a two-edged sword to many corporations as well as individual firms, and the greed for excessive profits among them led to much of the corporate dishonesty, illegal acts and methods, and wholesale graft in high places which we have seen exposed. These excesses and irregularities are now being corrected.
No wonder that their exposure, from time to time, gave blow after blow to public confidence, and kept investors from buying stocks, and turned their attention and speculative enterprise in other directions, and into other channels. These exposures and violations of law naturally aroused severe public criticism and indignation, and called for investigation by the Federal Government. In this President Roosevelt took the lead for the purpose of correcting the mal-administration, the abuse of power, and the illegal practices that had been exposed.
It was far from his intention to disturb public confidence among the stockholders of the railway and other corporations that, through their officers, had been guilty of illegal and fraudulent acts, particularly rebating. His object was by extirpating abuses to secure honest and lawful methods of management, and so protect and benefit investors in bonds and stocks, and secure justice and equality for shippers of produce and merchandise of all kinds, with the same rates for all, small and great, rich and poor, without special privileges to any, great corporations being compelled to respect the law as well as small ones. The righting and correction of wrongs practised in violation of the Inter-State and anti-trust laws of Congress would have had no disturbing effect upon investors, and the public mind, if properly viewed; and it requires a stretch of imagination to hold Mr. Roosevelt even indirectly responsible for the twenty-nine-million fine, the immediate cause of the disturbance in Wall Street that followed it.
Under the general monetary and other conditions then existing, that fine proved to be the last straw that broke the camel’s back, and, as is too often the case, the innocent stockholders were made to suffer with the guilty in the collapse of the stock market. The judge who frightened investors with visions of confiscation by inflicting that preposterous fine, must bear the responsibility of starting that downfall, not President Roosevelt.
August, 1907, was one of the most remarkable months in the history of Wall Street. After opening in profound gloom, with the stock market crumbling rapidly away under the rush of investors and speculators to sell, regardless of price, and with the bears and alarmists busily at work predicting widespread disaster, few expected during the twelve exciting and perilous days of the crisis that the month would close with the stock market gradually recovering, confidence somewhat restored, and many of both the bulls and the bears as unreasonably eager to buy as they before had been to sell, while the sentiment of the Street had changed from extreme depression and despondency to a cheerful and hopeful optimism. Incidentally the bulls were hanging the hides of some of the bears on the fence.
When the fall in prices was greatest, new low records were reached for many of even the best stocks, not only for the year but for several or many years, as in the case of New York Central, which sold at 99½, or lower than at any time since 1898. In those twelve eventful days investors might well shudder, for market values shrunk about three thousand millions of dollars, if we include all the stocks dealt in on the New York Stock Exchange measured by their lowest prices and total capitalization. But, of course, the actual losses sustained were comparatively small. Wall Street as soon forgets its sorrows as its joys, and looks ahead.
When at their lowest prices—and I give them as specimen bricks—Amalgamated Copper stock had depreciated 43 millions, Union Pacific 51 millions, Northern Pacific 36 millions, Great Northern 34 millions, New York Central 25 millions, Pennsylvania 28 millions, and Southern Pacific 21 millions, while in the Curb market Standard Oil stock suffered a shrinkage of 80 millions, and American Tobacco stock of 32 millions. That much of oil seemed to have been cast upon the waters, and that much of tobacco to have gone up in smoke.
The partial recovery in the stock market and the gradual return of confidence were coincident with and in the face of a rising market for cotton. There was an advance in middling cotton to 13½ cents a pound, the highest price on record for thirty-two years. Yet there was no dearth in the supply of cotton, and no sign of a “corner,” or the possibility of one, and we carried over into the new crop year, which began on the 1st of September, a visible supply of 1,200,000 bales of American cotton, making a world’s supply of 2,300,000 bales, or nearly 540,000 more than at the same time last year. These statistics may be dry, like a certain brand of champagne, but they tell their story in a nutshell.
I dwell on cotton because cotton is still king in the South, although less powerful in its sway than before the war, owing to the South’s development of its other resources and its more diversified financial and commercial interests. It is fortunate in not having all its eggs in one basket.
The recuperative power shown by Wall Street, after the crisis, was typical of that of the whole country. Speculative sentiment quickly passes from one extreme to the other. We are a great and progressive people and soon recover from disasters however formidable. We had a conspicuous illustration of this in the San Francisco catastrophe, to say nothing of the civil war. But a period of stability and comparative quiet would now be salutary. The recovery in the stock market, notwithstanding the severity of the recent strain, was mainly due to the sober second thought of the people, in conjunction with the announcement of the plan of the Secretary of the Treasury to ease the money market by making deposits weekly in the National banks of the large cities till the middle of October. This allayed anxiety as to the money market and it will, or may, have the desired effect in a large degree till the crop moving season is over, by preventing the undue locking up of money in the Sub-Treasuries at a time when it is most imperatively needed for business uses. The better feeling resulted, early in September, in the 40 millions of New York City 4½ per cent. bonds being bid for five times over, although at premiums averaging only a trifle more than 2 per cent.
The very severe decline in copper and the copper stocks, this month, has, however, caused some renewed and widespread disturbance, and the reduction of dividends by the Calumet and Hecla and Quincy copper companies will doubtless be followed by a general reduction of copper dividends. This is at present the worst feature of the general situation, as it indicates a largely reduced trade demand for copper, and foreshadows a curtailment of copper mining.
The Treasury plan is only a makeshift, however. The true remedy for this currency evil lies in the abolition of the independent Treasury and Sub-Treasury system, and the substitution in its place of now existing National bank depositaries. Congress should abolish it accordingly, and it probably will if the banks unite in demanding it, and so keep the currency in the banks, and in active circulation. The present antiquated system has been outgrown by the country, and is a reproach to our national intelligence as a great commercial people.
Simultaneously with the improvement in conditions here, and partly because of it, for example is contagious, there was a decided turn for the better in both sentiment and prices on the London Stock Exchange and the Berlin Bourse. Apprehensions which had been felt there of the trouble here extending, so as to more or less seriously involve Europe, subsided when it was seen that we had regained our composure, and were going ahead as usual. The situation had indeed changed so much that it really looked as if nothing very disastrous had happened, despite the hysteria and the crash that followed the spectacular fine of that Napoleon of the bench, Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis, a long name—or some of it—that will be remembered, especially by the Standard Oil Company, long after the fine has been set aside, or O.K.’d, by the United States Supreme Court. But it would be rash to assume that the trouble is all over. There are still many weak structures and disturbing causes that menace the situation. There is future danger in a too sudden recovery of confidence, and in under-estimating the danger we have passed through.
Meanwhile, because of what the Government has done to correct abuses in the management of the railways and the trusts, their stockholders will find that it has added to the security of their holdings of railway and other stocks, at the same time that it will prevent the acquisition of large fortunes, in dishonest ways, at their expense. The business situation will also be the safer and sounder and more conservative for it, and its general betterment will compensate for the suffering involved in the ordeal we have passed through. Often out of evil there cometh good.
All concerned in the ownership and management of corporations should willingly conform to the Federal laws now in force, and, if any of these should prove onerous, unjust, or defective, Congress can be called upon to amend them. They might as well make a virtue of necessity. The same course should be pursued with regard to railway rates, fixed by the respective States, until these, and their justice or injustice, have been passed upon by the Supreme Court of the United States. Through this compliance with law the popular craze against the railways and the Trusts will gradually subside, while the misconceptions and exaggerated views concerning Mr. Roosevelt’s policy and its influence will die out in the clearer light of a better understanding.
Of one thing we may be sure, and that is that President Roosevelt will always stand firm in his policy of enforcing the laws against wrongdoing by corporations. We heard this from Secretary Taft in his strong endorsement of that policy, and we heard it re-affirmed in the President’s Provincetown speech. But the penalties should always be inflicted on the individual officers responsible for violations of law, and these, to be effectual, should involve imprisonment, not fines against them or the corporations. That remedy is the only certain cure for the disease, if it again appears. By uniting in support of the President’s policy, which simply means the enforcement of the Inter-State Commerce law and the Sherman Anti-Trust law, as amended, those in control of railways and industrial corporations will increase the value of their stocks, and raise their credit both at home and abroad, while inspiring the other officers, and the rank and file of their employees, with a higher sense of honor, and responsibility to the public, than was compatible with the old rebating and graft-seeking trickery.
A large part of Wall Street was in such a nervous state during the crisis that it jumped at shadows, and trembled at a touch. It shuddered when Attorney General Bonaparte facetiously said that there was a fine covey of game among the large capitalists in control of corporations, and that he would be a poor marksman who would not bring some of the birds down.
It found fresh cause for alarm in the fight between the Southern Railway and the Southern States, and when the railway had its license canceled by Alabama it had a fresh attack of “nerves,” and, later, saw an ominous event in the surrender of the railway to the State, to recover its license. It feared the anti-corporation storm would wreck and devastate the business of the country. But after a storm there cometh a calm, and the nation, as a whole, is unscathed.
In considering the situation we must never fail to bear in mind that although investors, and holders of stocks and bonds, and many of the weaklings of the business world, have been made to suffer severely by the stern and uncompromising course of the Federal Government and some of the States—and that confidence was so undermined as to cause a temporary halt in enterprise—good results will follow. This ordeal has been at least a purifying one, and while the East has exaggerated its disturbing influence, the West and South have been comparatively indifferent to it. Those sections were never more prosperous and progressive than they are now. This arises from the fact that the East, being richer than the West, and having much more invested capital, especially in stocks and bonds, is correspondingly more interested in the market for these than the West, and more disturbed by great depression in Wall Street, and the causes producing it. The East is, therefore, much more likely to borrow trouble than the West or the South, especially when it cannot borrow money.
This borrowing of trouble took the usual form of fearing from day to day that worse consequences of the crisis awaited us than we had yet experienced, and it was increased among business men and corporations when they found their banks would no longer accept as collaterals for loans and discounts many of the securities they held for investment, and upon which they had been previously able to borrow in proportion to their market price. They found, too, they were generally unable even to borrow, on time, what they wanted, on the best of collaterals.
They were therefore cramped for money, and this restricted or embarrassed them in their business, and in a few instances caused their failure. Here we recognize the close connection that exists between trade and finance. The severe depression on the Stock Exchange so far impaired the market value of stocks and bonds as to make the banks and other money lenders everywhere distrustful of credits, the result being this inability to borrow, or at least to borrow all that was necessary. So it was not surprising that those with insufficient working capital were badly cramped, and had to curtail their business and make sacrifices, or go to the wall.
The curtailment from this cause among mercantile and manufacturing firms has been very extensive. It was better than going to the wall, however, and the after-effect upon the business situation has been salutary and wholesome. It has acted like a safety valve in checking over-trading, over-capitalizing, over-borrowing, over-stocking, and overdoing generally. It has slackened the pace at which too many scantily equipped concerns were going on the road to ruin. So it has made the business situation stronger and safer for the sound and solvent; and the elimination of a mushroom growth of irresponsible credit-seekers should be welcomed by the banks.
Wall Street is the great monetary clearing house of the country whose ramifications are co-extensive with the nation itself. It does not create values, but it reflects everything affecting securities and commodities, and represents all material interests. It is an unfailing barometer of values and the times. So those who say a heavy fall, or a panic, in stocks only affects Wall Street speculators shoot very wide of the mark. Wall Street radiates its influence over the whole country, and to a large and growing extent over the whole world, and it, or I should say New York, is destined, within no very long time, to become the financial center of the world. The recent severe financial disturbance in Wall Street, resulting in a reduction in the value of securities aggregating over $3,000,000, has proven one important thing, and that is that Wall Street and the industrial interests of the country have finally largely separated, and that a panic in Wall Street, while depressing, need not necessarily cause one at the same time in mercantile circles.
No doubt some of the Trusts and railway companies, accustomed to driving with a too free hand, and without much regard for the law, considered they were being handled very harshly by the law officers of the Government when they were brought up with a round turn and heavily fined for rebating. But, as they had violated the law wilfully, they had only themselves to blame, and they well knew that the way of the transgressor is hard—when convicted. There was some reason, however, in the complaint of some of the railways that in many of the States they had been made the targets of an aggressive popular policy towards corporations, that is, the policy of enforcing rigorously laws which might in some cases, such as the passenger and commodity rate laws by the States, finally be declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of the United States.
Our large railway and industrial corporations were primarily responsible for the disturbance and loss of confidence in the monetary situation through their recklessly extravagant issues of bonds, stocks, and short-term notes. For a long time they seemed to be doing their best to kill, in this way, the goose that laid the golden egg, and they finally succeeded in exhausting both their own borrowing power and the ability of the banks to lend, or of investors, at home or abroad, to purchase their issues. This tremendous output of new securities had to be checked, for it not only glutted the market, and overloaded underwriting syndicates, but depreciated values and created distrust among investors. It was piling Pelion on Ossa with a vengeance.
The collapse of last March in the stock market, and the more prolonged one of August, were obviously outbreaks of the same malady, the latter intensified by that twenty-nine-million fine. The distrust that caused these explosions had been brewing for years, and had its origin in the wholesale issues that over-taxed the money market and the lending capacity of the country and also squeezed Europe like an orange for all the money it had to lend.
It was righteous retribution that overtook some, at least, of the wrongdoers among the larger corporations. Their chickens had come home to roost through their own unrestricted and extravagant exploitations and illegal and dishonest practices.
The wholesome remedy of their discontinuance, combined with proper curtailment and conservatism, has been forced upon them by the necessities of the situation; and the enforcement of the new laws has no doubt put a stop to at least the most flagrant of the corporate abuses before prevalent. But the too sudden application of the brake at a critical turn in the road may at any time work havoc; and it is doubtful whether rigorous prosecutions for violations of law in years gone by are not productive of more harm than good. They are always unsettling, and unsettlement involves a corresponding weakening of confidence.
But future offences should be prosecuted with the utmost rigor of the law, and the railway companies and industrial corporations now fully understand this; and not one of them would be likely to run the risk of again violating the law, especially with imprisonment for offenders as the penalty. We must, however, always be careful not to make the remedy worse than the disease. In other words, the interests of the country at large are of more importance than the punishment of corporate wrongdoers for long past offences. Some allowance must be made for the heat of competition in the strenuous years we have passed through, and the former general tendency to moral laxity of men controlling and representing corporations, when acting in their corporate capacity, a laxity they would probably not have been guilty of in their own personal affairs. This would, of course, indicate their want of a proper sense of responsibility and honor. But that failing is not uncommon. Now their eyes have been opened to the danger of being without it.
The apparent indifference of some of the principal prosecuting officers of the Government to investment interests, in the published interviews with them, was, however, complained of as of itself disturbing and disconcerting to investors. It may have indicated a supposition that only capitalists, speculators, and those of large means were affected by the decline in stocks and bonds. The erroneousness of this impression is shown by the stock transfer books of every large railway and industrial corporation, in which the small holders of small means are very numerous, running up to several or many thousands in each corporation, and reaching a very large aggregate of shares. The small investors thus suffer by depreciation with the large ones, and even the people of small means with only savings bank deposits are, as we can all see, menaced through their dividends by the depreciation of the securities held for investment by the savings banks. Their depositors may learn a lesson in finance from this.
Those of the State of New York report for the half year ending on June 30, 1907, a new high aggregate for deposits and resources, the deposits being $1,394,296,034 and the resources $1,490,760,675. Yet their surplus, calculated on the market value of their holdings of stocks and bonds, had fallen from $108,671,735 on June 30, 1906, to $95,743,206. Here we have a shrinkage through the decline in prices of nearly thirteen millions or twelve per cent. of their surplus, in one year, although the savings banks are by law restricted in their investments to the most stable of first-class securities. If we go back to their reports of January 1, 1901, we find their surplus was $118,294,674, showing that the market for bonds has meanwhile been on a declining scale. Thus the savings banks and Wall Street are shown to be related.
In this August crisis there was far too much hysteria shown where calm judgment was called for, and this hysteria made the situation dangerous, although there was nothing dangerous in the actual condition of the country, apart from the distrust of credits and the scarcity of money on time, resulting from the immense activity of general business here and the monetary stringency abroad. A moderate slowing down of business is consequently the best remedy for this excess, and the one that will in the most direct and natural way generally restore ease to the money market. Meanwhile, the banks should assist within proper limits, when called upon, corporations and firms of proved earning capacity and known to be sound, and discriminate against those that have only an insecure or speculative foundation. This would accord with the teaching of the Bible, “To him that hath shall be given and from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath.”